The Bicycle Guide to Poker Satellite Strategy How to qualify for the main events of high stakes live and online poker tournaments

1. 1Before the bubble, estimate the target stack: the average stack you expect on the bubble. Think of it as total chips in play spread across the players left when the seats are about to be decided. Write the number down in big blinds. You will refine it with experience, but a written number beats a feeling.
2. 2Set your slow-down line as a percentage of that target. In a final table satellite it is 70% of the average bubble stack. In a mega satellite it is lower, around 50% or even 40%, depending on how many seats are on offer. As a general rule, start slowing down at 50% of the target stack.
3. 3Adjust the line for the field. The percentages are rough guidelines. When the structure is slow or the players are tough, use a higher target.
4. 4Know your floor. If you have blinded down to 30% of the target stack on the bubble, you will not even be in the bottom five players. Being short is therefore not automatically fatal, and blinding out is sometimes your best shot as a micro stack.
5. 5In a mega satellite, give relative position more weight than chasing the target stack. Read the lobby for your rank and the number of players left until the money. Then scan the other tables for short stacks, the blind levels and the clock.
6. 6Use other tables' shorter stacks as information. An eight big blind player on another table may think they must shove without knowing someone elsewhere has two big blinds. That is the kind of gap you look for when you are the one deciding whether to wait.
7. 7Run a second estimate in parallel: how well each opponent understands satellite ICM. Listen to table talk, especially from recreational players who narrate hands they did not play. Write notes you can update, such as 'understands satellite ICM' or 'called a 15bb shove on the bubble with KQ when they had a seat locked up'.
8. 8Apply the lock-up rule as a check: lock up when you are inside the bubble by more positions than there are players outside of the bubble. Use your calling and shoving ranges against each opponent according to whether your notes say they understand ICM.

The source describes a mega satellite with 50 seats and 59 players left, you in 56th. Nine players must still bust and only three have fewer chips than you. Your lobby rank and the players-to-the-money count are visible in real time, so you can check the position at once. Next you look at who is ahead and behind you, the blind level and the clock. The source calls this one of the most exciting situations in poker, because every table matters. Now add an illustrative number (not from the source): suppose you estimate the bubble target at 40bb. The 50% slow-down line is 20bb, and the 30% floor is 12bb. At that floor you would not even be in the bottom five, so blinding down further is a real option. A shorter stack on another table could bust first, so you do not have to gamble with a marginal hand. You also check whether the opponent in your blind has been tagged as someone who calls a 15bb shove with KQ when they already have a seat locked up. If so, you narrow your shoving range against that player.

• If you are in a final table satellite and your stack is below 70% of the expected average bubble stack, then slow down and tighten.
• If it is a mega satellite and you are at or below roughly 50% (or 40% with many seats) of the target, then stop adding variance. Fold more and keep watching your rank against the money line.
• If the structure is slow or the opponents are tough, then raise your target stack above the standard percentages.
• If you are inside the bubble by more positions than there are players outside it, then lock up and stop taking confrontations.
• If a player's notes say they understand satellite ICM, then trust that their shoves and calls are correctly disciplined. If they say the opposite, widen your range against them and expect them to misplay.

• Treating the percentages as fixed laws. The tell: you use 70% or 50% in a slow structure or against tough opponents without raising your target.
• Focusing only on your own stack in a mega satellite. The tell: you cannot say your rank, how many players are left until the money, or who is short on other tables.
• Playing the bubble as boring or panicking about being short. The tell: you shove 'because you must' at eight big blinds without checking whether someone on another table has two.
• Not gathering information on opponents. The tell: no notes by the bubble, you ignore table talk, and you treat every opponent's ICM understanding as the same.
• Playing loose early because there are no extra prizes for the most chips. The tell: you are chasing a big stack at a stage where the source says a three big blind finisher wins the same seat as a 60% chip leader.

• ▸Seats available / players left: the two counts from the lobby, and the gap between them.
• ▸My rank and stack in big blinds: your current position and stack size.
• ▸Estimated target stack (bb): your estimate of the average stack on the bubble.
• ▸Slow-down line: 70% of target (final table), roughly 50% or 40% (mega), or 50% as the general rule. Write the chosen percentage and the bb value.
• ▸Adjustment for structure/players: raise the target if the structure is slow or the opponents are tough. Note the new number.
• ▸Floor check: 30% of target in bb. Am I above or below the bottom five?
• ▸Other-table scan: short stacks on other tables, blind levels, clock. List the main findings.
• ▸Lock-up check: how many positions am I inside the bubble versus how many players are outside it?
• ▸Opponent ICM notes: one line per opponent, such as 'understands satellite ICM' or 'called a 15bb shove with KQ with seat locked'. Update when new information arrives.

1. 1Fix the goal before the first hand: a min cash is the target, and every seat pays the same. Finishing with 50% of the chips and finishing with three big blinds win the same ticket, so you measure a session by seats won, not by stack peak.
2. 2Build a stack to reach the bubble with a tight aggressive strategy, not a passive one. Raise when you hold hands strong enough to raise, so the table sees you play aggressively. Then avoid confrontation as much as you can. You need to look dangerous without actually fighting.
3. 3Once the blinds are big, remove the ChipEV-correct but high-variance plays: no set mining with small pairs, no chasing draws with suited connectors, no coin flips, no defending poor holdings because you are priced in. Each one lowers your odds of holding a survivable stack at bubble time.
4. 4With shallow stacks, open shove your strong hands instead of opening to 2.5x. This holds even at 20 or 30 effective big blinds. A min-raise that gets reshoved forces folds so often that you bleed down to a micro stack. Shove only with hands you don't mind getting called with, so the range stays narrow.
5. 5Choose the first-in all-in over the call. The shover has two ways to win: a fold or a showdown. The caller has one, which is having the best hand. Give opponents the chance to fold even when you hold a very strong hand, because every avoided showdown raises your chance of reaching the bubble.
6. 6Cut your calling ranges for all-ins that would hurt you severely or eliminate you. Take what you would call with in the same spot in a regular MTT and reduce it by roughly a factor of three. Keep the obvious calls, such as a flopped full house.
7. 7Use HUD reads only for small exploits, such as taking down blinds uncontested. Don't use them for wide 4-bets or for getting all-in preflop with the bottom of your range. Both put you in the high-variance spots you are trying to avoid.
8. 8Review your hands for the moment you could have sat still and didn't. A short but survivable stack is meant to carry you over the line. The tension of waiting is the main thing that pushes players to force an outcome.

Take the passage's contrast between two players. One is a 'Viktor Blom wannabe' who raises every hand and has accumulated 60% of the chips in play. The other is the tight player who sneaks over the line with three big blinds. Both win a ticket to the same event, so the extra 57% of the chips bought the wild player nothing. The tight player went through fewer all-in showdowns to get there, and that is why the tight player is expected to win more seats over a satellite career. Now the bubble: you hold JJ at 30 big blinds. The passage's advice is to open shove, not open to 2.5x and face a reshove you must fold or call. The shove gives you two ways to win. Opponents will often fold and you collect the blinds without a showdown. If someone calls, you still have a strong hand. The passage also says a seasoned satellite player shoving JJ or AQ at 30-40 big blinds is playing correctly, not strangely. Carlos Welch's stated dream is to make the money with just an ante, which is the same logic in its purest form.

• If the blinds are big and you are shallow, then open shove a narrow strong range instead of open raising and facing a reshove.
• If you face an all-in that would severely hurt or eliminate you, then call only with the roughly one-third of your normal MTT calling range that is clearly strong. Always call with monsters like a flopped full house.
• If a play is ChipEV correct but high variance (set mining, suited-connector draws, coin flips, priced-in defends), then skip it once the blinds are big.
• If you hold a very strong hand, then prefer the line that gives opponents a chance to fold over trapping, because trapping suits winning outright and survival does not need it.
• If you have a short but survivable stack near the bubble, then do nothing and let the blinds pass. Don't force a result to escape the tension.

• Playing for the win: you make decisions that maximise chips in a regular MTT. The tell is that you are calling or chasing in spots where a bust costs you the seat and a chip gain adds nothing.
• Over-calling all-ins: you call because the price looks right. The tell is that your calling range in a satellite matches your MTT range and you are regularly at the mercy of the deck.
• Over-tightening into a soft-target image: everyone knows you will blind out to make the money. The tell is that you are folding too much and opponents shove into you freely. You have to appear dangerous when you hold the hands to be aggressive.
• Overusing HUD reads: you 4-bet wide or fire triple barrels off the stats. The tell is that you keep ending up all-in preflop with the bottom of your range.
• Forcing a result to escape bubble tension: you make a move when a few more blinds would have won the seat. The tell is that you feel relief when you shove or call, and you would rather go out swinging than close out the satellite.

• ▸Stack in big blinds at start of the bubble phase: record your effective stack and the blind level.
• ▸Seats left versus players left: write the number of seats remaining and the number of players.
• ▸Hands where you chose an open shove over a 2.5x open: list them and note the effective stack.
• ▸Showdowns faced by call: count each all-in you called and your stack at risk.
• ▸Calls that were ChipEV-only: list priced-in defends, set mines, draws, or flips you took after the blinds got big.
• ▸Calls you folded versus your usual MTT range: note how many and whether you applied the factor-of-three cut.
• ▸Folds given to your shoves: count how many shoves won without a showdown.
• ▸Moment you wanted to force a result: describe the spot and what you did instead.
• ▸Outcome: record whether you reached the bubble with a survivable stack and whether you won the seat.

1. 1Name the three pressures before the satellite starts: boredom while stalling on a locked seat, fear far from the bubble, and the disappointment of a binary outcome. The source places each at a different point in the tournament, so you can prepare for each in advance.
2. 2Remind yourself that there is one prize size. A big stack earns no extra money, so taking crazy risks to build one is not worth it. Use this to justify patience once you have a survivable stack, and also to justify shoving when ICM says to.
3. 3Guard against fear-driven folding a long way from the bubble. Most satellite advice says to play fewer hands, so over-folding is easy to rationalise. Before each fold in the early and middle stages, ask whether it is a theory-based fold or a fear-based one. The lower-variance line is usually right, but only when theory says so.
4. 4Do not look at flights, hotels or trips while the satellite is still running. Excitement about the destination event builds as you near the bubble. In the source's example, a friend who started browsing flights to Punta Cana was badly stressed when a bad beat left him short.
5. 5When you have locked up a seat and are stalling and folding for hours, accept that the grind is part of the format. Live bubbles last longer than online ones, the action is slower, and you have no other tournaments to distract you. Treat the patience as the work itself.
6. 6Spot emotional bubbles at other tables. Recreationals tighten up near the end of a day to make Day 2 or to go to bed still alive. Respond by being more aggressive against the stacks that are protecting their position, rather than matching their caution.
7. 7Check whether opponents might play faster for financial reasons. If someone is short at the end of a Phase and Day 2 means a costly trip, they may take minus-ChipEV spots because busting saves the cost. Expect looser calls and shoves from that player.
8. 8After a bubble loss, assume the pain will not disappear and aim for faster recovery. Every hour of sting is an hour of missed improvement, and an emotional hangover can bleed into later sessions. Review the hand against satellite theory so you know whether you made the right play.
9. 9Write 'logic statements' and 'strategic reminders' as a letter to your future self. Record the lessons you have not internalised, such as playing too tight on the bubble or inducing when you should open-shove. Reread the letter before your next satellite.

The source gives an example of the fear problem and the recovery fix. David Lappin, co-host of the Chip Race Podcast, started looking at flights to Punta Cana while he was still in a satellite. He then took a bad beat and was left short-stacked, which stressed him out far more than it would have if he had stayed focused on the tournament. Tendler's advice applies to the aftermath. If you bust on the bubble, do not try to remove the pain, because it can't be removed. Instead, replay the key decision against satellite theory to settle whether the play was right, which removes the doubt. Then write a note such as 'I play too tight on the bubble' or 'I induce when I should open-shove'. This shortens the emotional hangover and keeps you from carrying it into the next tournament.

• If you hold a survivable stack with a seat nearly locked up, then fold patiently and accept the stalling, because there is only one prize size and a big stack adds nothing.
• If you feel the urge to fold a hand far from the bubble, then check whether theory or fear is driving it before you fold, because 'play fewer hands' advice makes over-folding easy to justify.
• If it is late in a day or a Phase and recreationals with respectable stacks are protecting their position, then open up and attack them, because they are playing tighter than is optimal.
• If an opponent is short with a costly trip ahead, then expect looser, minus-ChipEV-style play from them, because busting saves them the effort and expense.
• If you bust on the bubble, then review the decision against theory and update your letter to your future self before you sit in another tournament, because unresolved doubt prolongs the emotional hangover.

• Over-folding far from the bubble because you have absorbed 'play fewer hands'. The tell is a pile of folds you cannot justify with theory, and a short stack as a result.
• Daydreaming about the destination event before the seat is won, for example checking flights. The tell is that your thoughts are on the trip rather than on the next decision, and a bad beat hits harder.
• Letting boredom or frustration push you into spewy moves while you stall on a locked seat. The tell is impatience during a slow live bubble, and a wish to 'do something'.
• Carrying the bubble loss into the next session. The tell is replaying the hand for hours and playing worse afterward, with no written lessons to anchor the review.
• Mirroring the tightness of recreationals at the end of a day when you could exploit it. The tell is folding to protect a stack rather than pressuring those protecting theirs.

• ▸Satellite and date: record which event you played and when.
• ▸Stage when the pressure peaked: note whether it was early, mid, bubble, or stalling on a locked seat.
• ▸Emotion felt (boredom, fear, disappointment, showing off): name it precisely.
• ▸Decision under pressure: describe the hand or fold in one line.
• ▸Theory check: state whether the play was correct against satellite theory, and why.
• ▸Logic statement: write one sentence of correct reasoning you want to remember.
• ▸Strategic reminder: record the leak, for example 'I play too tight on the bubble'.
• ▸Letter to my future self: one or two lines to reread before the next satellite.
• ▸Recovery time: note how long the sting lasted and what shortened it.

1. 1Define the unit of measurement first: seats won (or their cash equivalent) divided by satellites entered. The passages give a benchmark: the standard ratio was 1 seat in 10, and the author once ran 1 in 2.5 with a min-raise-everything strategy. Log every entry, buy-in, rebuy, add-on, and seat or cash-out so you can compute both the rate and the ROI.
2. 2Track cost per entry, not just buy-in. In Centroll and Splash formats, extra rebuys raise your cost per chip. Example from the passages: a Splash satellite gives 3,000 chips for $2, and a $2 add-on gives 30,000 chips. One buy-in plus one add-on is 33,000 chips for $4 (just over $0.12 per 1,000). Two buy-ins plus one add-on is 36,000 for $6 (almost $0.17 per 1,000). Record the number of buy-ins per entry so ROI reflects real spend.
3. 3Judge your strategy against what the field does today, not what once worked. Re-check any strategy that drove a high conversion rate in the past. The min-raise-when-folded-to approach produced 1-in-2.5 when players over-folded, but online you now get 40 big blinds shoved at you every time. Re-test whenever your sample shows conversion dropping.
4. 4Run a default shove strategy in the late stages and keep it simple. The passages say the gains from complex raise/fold-versus-shove optimization are very marginal. Shoving your normal range late is not a massive error, and a simple default is easier on the mental game.
5. 5Quantify bubble risk with COB/COC when you review. Weight each stack by how much more likely it is to bust than the biggest stack, then COB = 100% divided by the sum of those weights, times each player's weight. COC = 100% minus COB. Check that COCs sum to the number of seats (e.g., 200% for two seats). Use this to judge whether your decisions kept your COC high.
6. 6Adjust shoving range to table composition and log the adjustment. Widen against nits (at 10bb nearly any two cards can shove). Tighten against maniacs, shoving roughly the top half. Treat one maniac as about two nits. Treat a small stack you cover like a nit, and a big stack that covers you like a maniac.
7. 7Preserve chips and stall opportunities on the bubble, including the 99,999-style bet in place of a full all-in on a 100,000 stack, since stalling is done to you in 70-90% of satellites. Do this only on a stable connection. Track whether it contributes to seat rate.
8. 8Review in volume, not by session. Because the format has high variance, judge specialization on seat rate and ROI across many satellites, and review hands in your database for leaks, as the passage describes doing against Tom Hall.

The source's own case: when Dara started playing satellites he won 1 seat in 2.5 against a standard ratio of 1 in 10, using one strategy, min-raising whenever it was folded to him. Players folded too much and never adjusted. Today online that same approach meets a shove of 40 big blinds every time, so it has flipped from an incredibly winning strategy to an incredibly losing one. Applying the tracking method: if his rolling seat rate drifted from 1 in 2.5 toward or below the 1-in-10 benchmark, the log would show it before the bankroll did. The fix is the default shove-based strategy against regulars, with range widening against nits and tightening against maniacs. A second cost check comes from the Splash example: 33,000 chips for $4 is about $0.12 per 1,000, while 36,000 for $6 is almost $0.17, so entries that need extra rebuys have lower ROI even at an equal seat rate.

• If your seat rate falls toward the 1-in-10 standard after a stretch above it, then suspect the field has adjusted to your strategy and re-examine it rather than blaming variance.
• If you are in a Splash satellite before the add-on, then keep rebuying but aim for one buy-in plus the add-on, since each extra rebuy raises cost per 1,000 chips.
• If you are in a Centroll satellite, then take the initial chips, try to reach the add-on, take it, and do not re-enter after busting.
• If the table has one maniac and one nit, then tighten rather than widen; only widen when nits clearly outnumber maniacs (about two nits per maniac).
• If you are in a 100-seat mega satellite, then shove rather than induce and do not spend effort balancing ranges; metagame matters mainly against the same satellite regulars.

• Relying on a past high conversion rate: the tell is a strategy (like min-raising every fold-around) that no longer gets folds and now runs into big shoves.
• Over-complicating late-game decisions for marginal gain: the tell is long, mentally draining deliberation on raise/fold versus shove spots where shoving your normal range is nearly as good.
• Measuring only buy-in cost: the tell is a positive-looking seat rate but poor ROI because of repeated rebuys in Centroll or Splash formats.
• Tightening against nits instead of widening: the tell is folding hands that are profitable shoves at 10bb, when even 32o is healthily profitable in the right spot and the bigger mistake is not widening against nits.
• Judging specialization from a short sample: the tell is changing strategy after a few satellites, when seat conversion needs many entries to read.

• ▸Date / site / satellite name: identify the event and format (super, mega, Centroll, Splash).
• ▸Buy-in paid (including rebuys and add-on): record the total spend, and the number of buy-ins used.
• ▸Seat prize value or cash equivalent: record what you won, or 0 if you busted.
• ▸Seat won (Y/N): feeds the seat rate (seats ÷ entries) to compare against the 1-in-10 benchmark.
• ▸Running seat rate: cumulative seats ÷ entries, updated after each satellite.
• ▸Running ROI: (total prize value − total spend) ÷ total spend.
• ▸Cost per 1,000 chips (Splash/Centroll): total spend ÷ chips received × 1,000, to catch rebuy drag.
• ▸Table read at bubble (nits/maniacs count): note the nit and maniac count and whether you widened or tightened.
• ▸Strategy note / adjustment: record any change and the sample size behind it.

1. 1Reset the objective before the first hand: every seat is worth the same prize, so finishing with 50% of the chips or one big blind pays identically. Judge each decision by whether it raises or lowers your chance of cashing (COC), not your chip total.
2. 2Build a stack to reach the bubble with tight aggressive play. Raise your strong hands when you get them, so opponents see you as dangerous, but avoid confrontation as much as possible.
3. 3Once blinds are big, remove the high-variance plays: no set mining with small pairs, no chasing draws with suited connectors, no coinflips, no defending poor holdings because you are priced in. These may be ChipEV correct but they cost you a survivable stack at bubble time.
4. 4With shallow stacks and big blinds, open shove your strong hands instead of opening to 2.5x. Do this even at 20 or 30 effective big blinds, because a standard open that meets a shove forces you to fold so often that you get blinded down to a micro stack.
5. 5Keep the shoving range strict: you get more folds than in a regular MTT, but that is no license to shove wide. Shove hands you don't mind getting called with, and give opponents the chance to fold even when you hold a very strong hand.
6. 6Narrow your calling range against all-ins. Take what you would call in the same spot in a regular MTT and cut it by roughly a factor of three. This is the default until you have worked through the deeper strategy.
7. 7Keep the exceptions: when you flop a full house and get shoved on, you call. Narrowing is a reduction, not an elimination.
8. 8Check your image. If you play too many hands, especially calling too much, you leak chips. If everyone knows you will blind out to make the money, you become a soft target. Aim to be tight but visibly capable of aggression.

The source contrasts two players in the same satellite. One is the 'Viktor Blom wannabe' who raises every hand and accumulates 60% of the chips in play. The other is the tight player who sneaks over the line with three big blinds. When the tournament ends, both hold a ticket to the same event. The source says the tight player wins more seats over a satellite career, because the aggressive player busts more often while chasing a stack that earns no extra prize. Apply this to a decision: at 20 effective big blinds with blinds large, you hold JJ. The tight line is to shove rather than open to 2.5x. The source notes that open shoving 30 or 40 big blinds with JJ or AQ is the sign of a seasoned satellite player. Shoving gives you two ways to win: they fold, or you win at showdown. Opening small and facing a reshove gives you one way, having the best hand, and you would have to fold often. The shove avoids that spot.

• If the blinds are big and you hold a strong hand, then open shove rather than open to 2.5x, even at 20 to 30 effective big blinds.
• If you face an all-in that would hurt you severely or eliminate you, then call with about one third of your normal regular-MTT range, plus the hands that are clearly strong (a flopped full house is a call).
• If a hand is a small pair, a suited connector, or a coinflip once blinds are big, then fold, even if it is ChipEV positive.
• If you are about to shove, then check that the hand is one you don't mind getting called with. Never widen the range just because folds come more often.
• If decisions are close, then pick the line that avoids showdown and keeps you alive to the bubble.

• Playing for the win: you take profitable MTT or cash-game risks and bleed chips on the bubble. The tell is that you are building a big stack when a short one would cash.
• Calling too widely: you put yourself at the mercy of the deck by calling all-ins because you are priced in. The tell is frequent showdowns for your whole stack with marginal hands.
• Open-raising small with strong hands at shallow depth, then folding to reshoves. The tell is a stack that shrinks steadily to a micro stack without ever going all-in.
• Playing too tight and too passively: opponents know you will blind out and push you off hands on the bubble. The tell is that you are the repeated target of bubble shoves and rarely show aggression.
• Treating narrowing as elimination: you refuse to call even with a monster. The tell is folding hands like a flopped full house to a shove.

• ▸Stage (early build / approaching bubble / bubble): note where you are, because variance rules tighten as blinds grow.
• ▸Effective stack in big blinds: record it to decide between open shove and standard raise.
• ▸Hand and position: write the exact holding.
• ▸Is it a banned high-variance play? (set mine, draw chase, coinflip, priced-in defend): yes or no.
• ▸Open shove or raise: if blinds are big and the hand is strong, choose shove; note the reason.
• ▸Am I the first all-in or facing one?: first in has two ways to win, facing has one.
• ▸Normal MTT calling range vs. reduced range (÷3): write both and mark whether this hand survives the cut.
• ▸Would I mind being called with this hand?: yes means don't shove it.
• ▸Image check: too loose, too exploitable, or tight and aggressive.

1. 1Establish the stage first. Fold equity is worth the most when the blinds are big, stacks are shallow and the bubble is near. Estimate the average stack on the bubble and tighten up once you reach about 70% of it. Fold equity still means giving opponents a chance to fold. It does not mean entering more pots.
2. 2Replace the standard 2.5x open with an open shove for your strong hands once blinds are big. This applies even at 20 or 30 effective big blinds. A raise invites a reshove, which forces you to fold often and blinds you down, or to call and take the showdown variance you are trying to avoid.
3. 3Build the shoving range from hands you don't mind getting called with. The passages say you will get more folds from an open shove in a satellite than in a regular MTT. That is not permission to shove wide. Think in ranges, not single hands.
4. 4Shove strong hands even when you could trap. Trapping and inducing suits a tournament you are trying to win outright. In a satellite, every showdown you avoid improves your chance of reaching the bubble. JJ or AQ shoved at 30 to 40 big blinds is the seasoned-player line.
5. 5Make yourself the first player all-in. The first shover puts the pressure on everyone else, and satellite-savvy regulars respond to that pressure by folding. Put the pressure on covered players first, since they risk the most by calling.
6. 6Cut your calling range sharply whenever a loss would hurt you severely or eliminate you. If you are unsure whether to complete or fold, fold. If you are unsure whether to 3-bet or flat, flat. These default rules cover the close spots.
7. 7When you cover a player near the bubble, take pots down with small bets (the passages' example is a 15% bet). When you are the covered one, play shove or fold with your whole range and avoid post-flop lines.
8. 8Adjust only on reads. If a player folds to min raises or flop continuation bets a lot, or never 3-bets without Aces, exploit it. Without such a read, shove or fold is the default. It grows more effective as opponents know more about ICM and GTO.

Late in a super satellite the blinds are big and you hold JJ with about 30 big blinds. Raising to 2.5x big blinds looks natural, but a reshove then forces you to fold JJ often, or to call and risk your tournament life at a showdown. The passages say that fold-or-call sequence is a sure way to get blinded down to a micro stack. Open shoving instead gives every opponent the chance to fold, and JJ is a hand you don't mind getting called with. It also fits the passages' benchmark: seasoned satellite players show up with JJ or AQ when they open shove 30 to 40 big blinds. Adjust for position in the field. At 90th of 120 with 100 seats you stay extremely tight and fold strong hands to players who cover you, but you still shove big hands and bully a very tight player. At 110th of 120 with 100 seats you will blind out before the others, so you get your money in wherever the spot is profitable.

• If the blinds are big and you hold a strong hand, then open shove rather than open raise, even at 20 to 30 effective big blinds, so you cannot be reshoved over.
• If you would not mind a call with the hand, then shove it. If you would, then fold it. Do not widen the shoving range just because shoves get more folds in satellites.
• If a loss would hurt you severely or eliminate you, then narrow your calling range to the strongest hands. If a close decision remains, take the lower-variance option: fold, check or flat.
• If you are covered near the bubble, then shove or fold your whole range instead of taking post-flop lines. If you cover the opponent, then use small bets to take pots down.
• If you hold a solid read that an opponent folds too much (min raises, flop c-bets) or never 3-bets without Aces, then exploit it. Without such a read, shove or fold.

• Shoving too wide because shoves get folds. The tell: you are called often by hands that dominate or flip against you, and you are busting at showdown.
• Raising small with strong hands and facing reshoves. The tell: you fold a lot of premium hands to reshoves and your stack shrinks without any showdowns.
• Trapping with monsters to build a big stack. The tell: you are in big confrontations near the bubble, when chips beyond the seat add little equity.
• Calling all-ins too widely, which the passages call the biggest error in satellites. The tell: you justify calls because you are priced in or the call is ChipEV correct.
• Being seen only as a tight player who will blind out. The tell: opponents attack your blinds and reshove on you, because you have not been seen playing aggressively with hands that deserved it.

• ▸Stage: how far you are from the bubble, and whether your stack is near 70% of the expected bubble average.
• ▸Effective stack in big blinds: note whether it is 20 to 30 BB or shorter, where an open shove replaces the 2.5x raise.
• ▸Cover status: who covers you and who you cover.
• ▸Hand/range: the hand, plus the whole range you would play this way.
• ▸Called-with test: would you mind a call with this hand? If yes, fold or choose the low-variance line.
• ▸Reshove exposure: if you raise and get shoved on, how often do you fold? If often, shove instead.
• ▸Calling cost: if you were called, would the loss hurt you severely or eliminate you?
• ▸Read on opponent: observed folding or 3-bet tendencies, or 'none' (use shove or fold).
• ▸Chosen line: shove / fold / small bet / low-variance default, with the reason.

1. 1Start from the GTO baseline for your position, stack and the players left to act. The book builds every adjustment on GTO because it is hardest to exploit and is the best default when you have no read. Treat it as a foundation to diverge from, not a rule.
2. 2Name the read in terms of calling frequency, not a label. 'Nit' is not enough. Estimate the percentage of hands each player behind calls with, and compare it to the GTO calling range for that seat. In the examples, GTO callers sit at 4.3-8.4% against a MP2 shove and 26.4% for a BB facing an SB shove.
3. 3Check each opponent's stack and position. Stacks of 20-30 big blinds, 10-20 big blinds, and a BB who closes the action with chips already in all change the correct calling range. The BB calls wider (8.4% vs 4.3-6.6% in the MP2 example) because of the better price.
4. 4Rebuild the opponents' calling ranges at the reduced frequency. Write out the actual hands, e.g. 15% = 66+, A5s+, A8o+, KTs+, KJo+. Halving a 4.3-6.6% range gives QQ+ AKs for most seats and TT+ AQs+ AK for the BB.
5. 5Feed the reduced ranges into an ICM calculator and read off your shoving range. Do not assume 'any two'. In the SB vs 30bb BB example, 15% and 20% calling ranges both produce 100%, but 25% drops the shove to 93.7%.
6. 6Weigh the number of opponents. Your read must hold for every player left to act. Against five players all calling at half frequency, MP2 goes from 25.7% to 100%, and UTG goes from 16.3% to 100% against eight.
7. 7Add small positional factors only as tiebreakers. Under the gun, the fact that you post the big blind next hand with 10bb, and don't want to fold to a shove and fall to nine, widens the range slightly. It does not replace the calculation.
8. 8Re-test the read before each shove. If any player behind calls closer to GTO or wider, the shove can be very unprofitable, so recompute or revert toward the GTO baseline.

Nine players remain with six seats to be won. Five stacks are 20-30bb and four are 10-20bb. You are in the SB with 10bb (9,500 after the blind), and the BB has 30bb (29,000) and is very tight. GTO has you shoving 81.1% and the BB calling 26.4% (44+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs). If the BB calls only 15% (66+ A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KJo+), your adjusted shove is 100%. At 20% (55+ A3s+ A7o+ K8s+ KTo+ QTs+ QJo), it is still 100%, even though 20% is a tight range for a satellite. At 25% (55+ A2s+ A5o+ K7s+ K9o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs), you drop to 93.7%, folding the worst hands (22+ 8x+ 72s+ 73o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+ is the shoving range). The lesson is that a nit read only licenses 'any two' while the true calling frequency stays well under about 25% in this spot.

• If every player left to act calls at roughly half their GTO frequency, shove any two cards, even UTG. The opponents' tendencies matter more than your hand.
• If the BB calls 20% or less against your SB shove at these stacks, shove 100%. If they reach about 25%, trim to the ~94% range and fold the weakest offsuit hands.
• If you are unsure the read applies to everyone behind, or any player calls near or above GTO, revert toward the GTO range, because a wrong any-two shove is very unprofitable.
• If you are shoving a wide range, remember the BB closes the action and calls wider than the other seats. Check the BB's range separately.
• If you have no read on the players behind, use the GTO range as your default and do not widen.

• Treating 'he's a nit' as automatic permission to shove any two. The tell is shoving without estimating the actual calling percentage or running it through an ICM calculator. A 25% caller already forces an adjustment.
• Applying one player's tightness to the whole table. The tell is shoving 100% with a loose player or a short-stack still to act, whose call range is closer to or above GTO.
• Ignoring position and stack differences. The tell is using the same calling range for a 30bb CO and a 19bb BB closing the action, when the BB should call wider.
• Memorising the book's ranges as gospel instead of the method. The tell is reusing the 100% result in a spot with different stacks, player count or calling frequency. The authors say the ranges are illustrations.
• Failing to update after seeing showdowns. The tell is continuing to shove wide after the 'nit' calls with hands outside the estimated range.

• ▸Your position and effective stack (bb): record where you act and how deep you are.
• ▸Players left to act: list each seat with its stack in bb.
• ▸GTO calling range per seat (%): note the baseline for each, e.g. BB 8.4%, SB 6.6%.
• ▸Read per seat (tight/loose/unknown): label each one and write why you think so.
• ▸Estimated actual calling % per seat: give a number, e.g. 15%, 20% or 25%.
• ▸Hands in estimated calling range: write them out, e.g. 66+ A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KJo+.
• ▸ICM calculator output: record the shoving range and % the calculator returns.
• ▸Read confidence (high/med/low): note if any seat could call near GTO. If so, move back toward GTO.
• ▸Final action: record the range you will shove and the hands you will fold.

1. 1Confirm the structure is flat before you apply any of this. Check that every surviving player wins a prize of equal value, a seat or ticket. The source's test: in a super satellite 1st might get the same as 20th. Winner-takes-all satellites are out of scope, because they call for ChipEV, cash-game strategy.
2. 2Restate the goal as a binary: seat or no seat. The source's line is 'you are playing for prizes of equal value.' The wannabe with 60% of the chips and the player who sneaks over the line with three big blinds win the same ticket. The metric is how often you cash, not how thoroughly you crush the field.
3. 3Before the bubble, build just enough stack to survive to it. Play tight-aggressive and cut high-variance plays. Once blinds get big, that means no set mining with small pairs, no chasing suited-connector draws, no coin flips, and no defending poor holdings because you are priced in. The source notes these may be ChipEV-correct, but they reduce your chance of holding a survivable stack at bubble time.
4. 4Value your stack by the seat, not by chips. Use the source's ChipEV versus ICM split. A call that increases chips on average can still lose money on the bubble, because every loss costs you chips and the payout, while a fold keeps your shot at the money. Before any call, ask what the call risks in seat equity, not what it gains in chips.
5. 5When stacks get shallow and blinds are big, consider open-shoving your strong hands, even at 20 or 30 effective big blinds. If you open to 2.5x and get shoved on, you will have to fold, so the shove avoids being reshoved over.
6. 6Default to folding when someone else is in the pot. The source calls calling too wide 'the cardinal sin' of super satellites. A bad fold is often a small mistake, and a bad shove can at least win uncontested. Treat every call as needing a specific reason to get involved.
7. 7After the bubble bursts, stop accumulating. All stacks are worth the same seat, a 6bb stack the same as a 100bb stack, and the tournament ends straight after. Extra chips add little equity, so there is no reason to keep building.
8. 8Do not over-correct into folding everything. The source warns that folding too much is also a mistake, and says there is a specific situation where you should call very wide that many satellite regulars miss. Treat 'always fold' as a default, not a law.

The source builds the contrast from a $1,000, 100-player MTT with a 10,000 starting stack. Your stack starts worth $1,000, so a 1,000 chip is worth $100. Win it all and you collect only $30,000 of the $100,000 pool, so that same chip is now worth $30. Payout structure has repriced chips, and that is in a normal, top-heavy payout. Now flatten it: 1st pays the same as 20th. After the bubble, a 6bb stack and a 100bb stack are both worth exactly one seat. The source's normal-MTT illustration shows the stack-size gap: with a $2,000 first payout, a 100bb player values each blind at $20 and a 10bb player values each at $200. The flatter the structure, the more that gap favors survival over accumulation. The source's own anecdote shows the discipline. Strong pros are seen folding in tricky spots near a satellite bubble: UTG or on the button facing a UTG open, around 20bb, holding something marginal like Ace-Queen. A hand that is a comfortable call in a regular MTT becomes a fold, because losing costs the seat and winning adds almost nothing.

• If every surviving player wins the same prize, then stop asking whether a play wins chips on average and ask whether it lowers your chance of reaching the money.
• If the blinds are big and the play is set mining, a draw chase, a coin flip, or a priced-in defend, then skip it, even when it is ChipEV-correct.
• If you are choosing between a marginal call and a fold near the bubble, then fold. A bad fold is a small error and calling too wide is the cardinal sin. Reconsider only in the specific wide-calling situation the source flags.
• If you are at 20-30 effective big blinds with a strong hand, then consider open-shoving instead of opening to 2.5x, so you cannot be reshoved over and forced to fold.
• If the bubble has burst and you are guaranteed a seat, then stop building; chips beyond that have little equity value.

• Playing the satellite like an MTT and taking calculated risks to build a big stack. The tell: you celebrate chip leads and count how many chips you have, not how close you are to the money.
• Making loose bubble calls because 'I'm priced in' or 'it's +ChipEV.' The tell: your justification contains pot odds or chip expectation but no mention of what busting costs.
• Chasing a massive stack on or around the bubble. The tell: you keep applying pressure after the seat is secured or after the stack is already survivable, even though the tournament ends straight after.
• Overcorrecting into never calling. The tell: you fold in every spot, including the situations the source says call for very wide calling. The source says it can be a mistake to fold too much.
• Opening small with a strong hand at 20-30bb and facing a shove. The tell: you raise to 2.5x, get reshoved over, and fold a hand you wanted to play.

• ▸Prize structure: confirm that all surviving places pay equal value and count the seats left.
• ▸Players left vs seats: write the gap to the bubble, since it sets how much survival matters.
• ▸Effective stack (bb): record your stack and the key opponent's, since short stacks carry more value per chip.
• ▸Stage: mark pre-bubble, on the bubble, or post-bubble. After the bubble, stop accumulating.
• ▸Action type: label the play as shove, call, or fold. Calls need a specific reason to get involved.
• ▸Variance flag: mark whether the play is set mining, a draw chase, a coin flip, or a priced-in defend.
• ▸ChipEV vs seat result: note whether the play wins chips on average and whether it risks the seat.
• ▸Shove alternative: at 20-30bb with a strong hand, note whether an open shove beats a 2.5x open.
• ▸Decision and review note: record fold, call, or shove, and later check whether it protected your cash rate.

1. 1Count the players left and the seats paid before anything else. Satellite prizes are equal, so each bust-out moves you closer to a seat and nothing more. Write the ratio (e.g. 3 players, 2 seats) as the first line of every decision.
2. 2Rank every stack at the table against yours. Sort them into: covers you, covered by you, and safe. The source calls 'comfortable but covered' one of the trickiest stacks: you easily cover the short stacks, but a big stack could call you off, and you are not safe enough to blind away.
3. 3Run a Chance of Cashing (COC) estimate before any call. Start with the logic case: 10 players, 9 seats, equal stacks = 90%. Use a calculator or arithmetic only when stacks are unequal. COC is the number you protect.
4. 4Check where you sit relative to the bubble. On the bubble, with the big stack shoving any two cards from a 40,000 stack, the GTO calling ranges are tiny: BU JJ+ (1.8%), SB TT+ (2.3%), and your BB 0%. You fold even Aces.
5. 5Move the same stacks away from the bubble to see how the pressure changes. Adding a fourth 10,000 stack in front of you (still three seats) lowers the big stack's shoving range to 42.7%, but your BB can still only call with AA (0.5%). Distance from the bubble alone does not rescue a covered middle stack.
6. 6When you are the shover, size the plan to the stack spread. Once blinds are big and stacks shallow, open shove strong hands even with 20-30 effective big blinds, because a 2.5x open that gets shoved over forces too many folds and blinds you down.
7. 7Shove only with hands you don't mind being called with. Fold equity is the most important equity in a super satellite, and avoiding showdown protects survival.
8. 8Compare ranges across scenarios instead of memorising tables. Ask how the range moved when the stack ratio or bubble distance changed. That shift is the skill the source says it trains.

Four players remain in a satellite with three seats, blinds 500/1,000. Player 1 has 40,000, Players 2 and 3 have 10,000 each, and you have 20,000 in the big blind. The big stack is in the cut-off and shoves any two cards (100%). The BU calls with only JJ+ (1.8%), the SB with TT+ (2.3%), and the source's answer for you is that no hand can call, 0%. You cover both short stacks and the big stack covers you. Calling risks your whole seat, and winning gains little, because the shorts are likely to bust without your help. So you fold even Aces. Add another 10,000 stack before you, so five players remain with three seats. The big stack's shove narrows to 42.7%, but your BB range goes from none to AA alone (0.5%). The comparison to remember is how the range changes: the pressure eases only slightly with distance from the bubble, and it stays heavy for a covered middle stack.

• If you are the middle stack covered by a big stack on the bubble, then fold everything, Aces included, and let the short stacks bust.
• If you are covered and the table is one player further from the bubble, then still call only with AA. Do not assume extra players loosen your calling range.
• If you cover the short stacks but the big stack covers you, then do not play for the biggest pot. Stay out of confrontation unless a short stack must act first.
• If blinds are large and stacks are shallow, then open shove strong hands even at 20-30 big blinds. Do not min-raise and risk folding to a re-shove.
• If you hold unpaired hands like AQo against a tight shover on the bubble, then treat it as a trap hand. It barely wins a ChipEV coinflip, and AKs can be a fold once ICM is applied.

• Calling the big stack's shove 'because Aces are a huge favourite'. The tell: you justify the call with equity and never compute your COC.
• Playing like a maniac, with too many hands and too many calls. The tell: you are in showdowns repeatedly before the bubble and arrive short.
• Being known as someone who blinds out to reach the money. The tell: opponents shove at you freely because you are a soft target. You need to be seen playing aggressively with good hands.
• Using regular-MTT stack-building logic on the bubble (set mining, chasing draws, coin flips). The tell: you justify a play as ChipEV-correct while ignoring that it lowers your chance of reaching the bubble with a survivable stack.
• Treating every bubble stack as the same. The tell: you use one calling range whether you are the big stack, a short stack, or the covered middle.

• ▸Players left / seats paid: write the ratio (e.g. 4 players, 3 seats).
• ▸My stack and rank: record my chips and my place from largest to smallest.
• ▸Who covers me / who I cover: list the stacks above and below mine.
• ▸Players to the bubble: count how many bust-outs remain before the seats are secured.
• ▸COC estimate: use equal-stack logic or a calculator, as a percentage.
• ▸Opponent's shoving range: note the position and the stack size behind the shove.
• ▸My calling range under GTO: write the hands, or 'none'.
• ▸Exploit adjustment: record any read on a player who over-folds or over-calls.
• ▸Decision and COC change: fold/call/shove, and how COC moves if I lose the pot.